Stable Worldviews or Context-Sensitive Systems? Longitudinal Evidence on the Development of Epistemically Suspect Beliefs Across Two Sociopolitical Contexts

Abstract

Are epistemically suspect beliefs (ESBs)-including conspiracy, paranormal, and pseudoscientific beliefs-stable worldviews, or do they shift alongside changes in the sociopolitical context? Although often treated as enduring dispositions, little is known about their within-person development or sensitivity to sociopolitical conditions. We address this question using two five-wave panel studies conducted over 2 years in T & uuml;rkiye (N = 595-2,077) and the United Kingdom (N = 350-959). Latent growth models show modest mean-level declines in ESBs alongside strong cross-domain coupling in both levels and trajectories. However, co-development patterns were context-sensitive. In T & uuml;rkiye, within-person increases in perceived corruption covaried with increases in conspiracy beliefs, whereas this pattern did not consistently emerge in the United Kingdom. These findings indicate that ESBs are neither purely static dispositions nor fully context-driven reactions but exhibit a durable cross-domain structure with bounded sensitivity to sociopolitical conditions.