Study of epidemiological behaviour of malaria and its control in the Purulia district of West Bengal, India (2016-2020)

Abstract

Purulia is a malaria-prone district in West Bengal, India, with approximately half of the blocks defined as malaria endemic. We analyzed the malaria case in each block of the Purulia district from January 1, 2016, to December 31, 2020. As per the API, 20 blocks of Purulia were assigned to four different categories (0-3) and mapped using ArcGIS software. An exponential decay model was fitted to forecast the trend of malaria cases for each block of Purulia (2021-2025). There was a sharp decrease in total malaria cases and API from 2016 to 2020 due to the mass distribution of LLINs. The majority of cases (72.63\%) were found in >= 15-year age group. Males were more prone to malaria (60.09\%). Malaria was highly prevalent among Scheduled Tribes (48.44\%). Six blocks were reported in Category 3 (high risk) and none in Category 0 (no risk) in 2016, while no blocks were determined to be in Category 3, and three blocks were in Category 0 in 2020. The exponential decay model prediction is oriented towards gaining malaria-free status in thirteen blocks of Purulia by 2025. This study will incite the government to uphold and strengthen the current efforts to meet the malaria elimination goals.